2022 OR Governor Race

2022 OR Governor Race

Summary

The 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Oregon. Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown took office on February 18, 2015, upon the resignation of John Kitzhaber. She was subsequently elected in the gubernatorial special election in 2016and was re-elected to a full term in 2018. Due to term limits, she cannot seek re-election in 2022.

The Oregonian anticipated the election to have “the first competitive Democratic primary in more than a decade and potentially the closest such race since 2002.”Willamette Week anticipated a “wide open field of Democrats”, citing the lack of an incumbent. Almost 20 Republicans ran for the office, including two previous nominees for governor in 1998 and 2016, as well as 15 Democrats and some non-affiliates/third-party members.

Oregon is a solid Democratic state at the presidential level, and has not elected a Republican governor since 1982; however, recent margins of victory in percentage points in the state’s gubernatorial elections have been within single digits, and Republicans are predicted to do well nationally in the 2022 elections.

In the May 17 primary elections, former House Speaker Tina Kotek was declared the winner of the Democratic primary half an hour after the ballot deadline. The next day, former House Minority Leader Christine Drazan was determined to have won the Republican primary.Notably, the general election will feature three prominent female candidates, including former State Senator Betsy Johnson running as an independent.

From Wikipedia entry

Source: Wikipedia

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Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[143]Likely DMay 18, 2022
Inside Elections[144]Likely DMarch 4, 2022
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[145]Lean DMay 18, 2022
Politico[146]Lean DMay 23, 2022
RCP[147]Lean DJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News[148]Lean DMay 12, 2022
538[149]Lean DJuly 1, 2022

Web Links

Tina Kotek

Tina Kotek

Current Position: State Delegate since 2013
Affiliation: Democrat
Candidate: 2022 Governor

Tina Kotek (born September 30, 1966) is an American politician who served as speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives from 2013 to 2022. She is currently the Democratic nominee for governor of Oregon in the 2022 election.

Before being elected to office, Kotek worked as the policy director of Children First for Oregon, prior to which she was a public policy advocate for the Oregon Food Bank. She co-chaired the Human Services Coalition of Oregon during the 2002 budget crisis and serves as the co-chair of the Governor’s Medicaid Advisory Committee.

For more information, go to this post.

Christine Drazan

Christine Drazan

Current Position: State Delegate since 2018
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2022 Governor

Christine Drazan (born Christine Renee Deboy) is an American politician who served in the Oregon House of Representatives from the 39th district from 2019 to 2022, as a member of the Republican Party. During her tenure in the state house she served as the minority leader from 2019 to 2021. She is the Republican nominee in the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election.

Drazan was born in Klamath Falls, Oregon, and educated at Eagle Point High School and George Fox University. During the 1990s she worked for Speaker Mark Simmons. She was elected to the state house in the 2018 election and reelected in the 2020 election. During her tenure as minority leader, she engaged in legislative delaying tactics and quorum denial.

For more information, go to this post.

Wikipedia

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For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.
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The 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Oregon. Incumbent Kate Brown took office when fellow Democrat John Kitzhaber resigned on February 18, 2015. She won the subsequent 2016 special election [1] a full term in 2018.[2] Due to term limits, she was unable to run again in 2022.[3]

The Oregonian anticipated the election to have "the first competitive Democratic primary in more than a decade and potentially the closest such race since 2002."[4] Willamette Week anticipated a "wide open field of Democrats", citing the lack of an incumbent.[5] Almost 20 Republican Party candidates ran for the office, including two previous nominees for governor in 1998 and 2016,[6][7] as well as 15 Democrats and some non-affiliates/third-party members.[8] This was the state's first gubernatorial election since 2002 in which there was no current or former governor on the ballot.

In the May 17 primary elections, former Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek was declared the winner of the Democratic primary half an hour after the ballot deadline.[9] The next day, former House Minority Leader Christine Drazan was determined to have won the Republican primary.[10] Notably, the general election featured three prominent female candidates, including former state senator Betsy Johnson, who was a moderate Democrat, running as an independent.

Oregon was considered a possible Republican pickup, as Kate Brown had the lowest approval rating of any governor in the United States at the time and Johnson could have siphoned votes from Kotek.[11][12][13] Nonetheless, Kotek narrowly won the election, becoming Oregon's 7th consecutive Democratic governor.[14] She became one of the first lesbian governors in the United States, along with Maura Healey, who was elected Governor of Massachusetts the same day.[15]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • David Beem, former member of the Oregon Disabilities Commission[17]
  • Julian Bell, critical care and pulmonary medicine specialist and candidate for governor in 2016[18]
  • Wilson Bright, retired textile company operator[19]
  • George Carrillo, program manager at the Oregon Health Authority and Marine Corps veteran[20]
  • Michael Cross, software designer, commercial driver, and Republican nominee for Oregon attorney general in 2020[21]
  • Ifeanyichukwu Diru, farmer and candidate for governor in 2014[22]
  • Peter Hall, Haines city councilor and member of the Board of Directors of the League of Oregon Cities[23]
  • Keisha Merchant, artist and creative designer[24]
  • Tobias Read, Oregon state treasurer (endorsed Kotek in general election)[25][26]
  • Patrick Starnes, former Independent Party of Oregon candidate for governor (2018)[27]
  • David Stauffer, environmental inventor and perennial candidate[28]
  • John Sweeney, owner of Canary Castle Gallery[29]
  • Michael Trimble, cyclist and disability advocate[30][31]
  • Genevieve Wilson, independent contractor[32]

Disqualified

Withdrew

Declined

Debates

No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant   N  Non-invitee 
George CarilloTina KotekTobias ReadPatrick Starnes
1[52]Mar 18, 2022Oregon AFL–CIOMichelle DamisNPPN
2[53]Apr 22, 2022City Club of PortlandLaural Porter
David Molko		VideoNPPN
3[54]May 3, 2022KOIN 6 News
Pamplin Media Group		Ken BoddieVideosPPPP

Endorsements

Tina Kotek
U.S. senators
Labor unions
Political parties
Newspapers
Organizations
Tobias Read
State officials
Patrick Starnes
Political parties
Nicholas Kristof (disqualified)
Labor unions
Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Tina
Kotek		Tobias
Read		Undecided
FM3 Research (D)[A]April 7–11, 2022653 (LV)± 3.8%25%20%56%

Results

Results by county
  Kotek
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Read
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[81]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticTina Kotek 275,301 57.63%
DemocraticTobias Read156,01732.66%
DemocraticPatrick Starnes10,5242.20%
DemocraticGeorge Carrillo9,3651.96%
DemocraticMichael Trimble5,0001.05%
DemocraticJohn Sweeney4,1930.88%
DemocraticJulian Bell3,9260.82%
DemocraticWilson Bright2,3160.48%
DemocraticDave Stauffer2,3020.48%
DemocraticIfeanyichukwu Diru1,7800.37%
DemocraticKeisha Marchant1,7550.37%
DemocraticGenevieve Wilson1,5880.33%
DemocraticMichael Cross1,3420.28%
DemocraticDavid Beem1,3080.27%
DemocraticPeter Hall9820.21%
Total votes477,699 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Debates

No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee 
Barton
Boice
Burch
Christensen
Drazan
Gomez
Hess
McCloud
McQuisten
Merritt
Pierce
Pulliam
Richardson
Sizemore
Strek
Thielman
Tiernan
1[110]Apr 7, 2022Timber UnityDenise Quinn
Hunter Newton		PPNAPPAPAPPPNPPPP
2[111]Apr 21, 2022Central Oregon Daily
The Bulletin		Allen Schauffler
Jerry O'Brien		VideoNNNNPNNNNNPPNNNNP
3[112]Apr 22, 2022Linn County Republican PartyAdam KeatonVideoPNPNANPPPPNNPPNPA
4[113]Apr 28, 2022KOIN 6 News
Pamplin Media Group		Jeff GianolaVideosNNNNPNNNNNPPNNNNP
5[114]May 3, 2022City Club of PortlandLaural Porter
David Molko		VideoPNNNAPNNNNPPNNNNN

Endorsements

Bridget Barton
Organizations
Individuals
Christine Drazan
Newspapers
Organizations
Jessica Gomez
State officials
Newspapers
Bud Pierce
Newspapers
Bob Tiernan
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Bridget
Barton		Christine
Drazan		Jessica
Gomez		Kerry
McQuisten		Bud
Pierce		Stan
Pulliam		Bill
Sizemore		Marc
Thielman		Bob
Tiernan		OtherUndecided
Nelson Research (R)Apr 29 – May 2, 2022514 (LV)± 4.3%3%19%2%6%10%7%4%6%14%3%[b]27%
Nelson Research (R)Apr 11–13, 2022520 (LV)± 4.3%2%8%4%3%11%5%5%4%5%5%[c]48%
Fallon Research & Communications (R)[B]Early Nov 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%–2%2%–14%––––15%[d]67%

Results

Results by county
  Drazan
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Tiernan
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  Pierce
  •   20–30%
  McQuisten
  •   10–20%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[81]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanChristine Drazan 85,255 22.99%
RepublicanBob Tiernan66,08917.82%
RepublicanStan Pulliam41,12311.09%
RepublicanBridget Barton40,88611.02%
RepublicanBud Pierce32,9658.89%
RepublicanMarc Thielman30,0768.12%
RepublicanKerry McQuisten28,7277.74%
RepublicanBill Sizemore13,2613.57%
RepublicanJessica Gomez9,9702.69%
RepublicanTim McCloud4,4001.19%
RepublicanNick Hess4,2871.15%
RepublicanCourt Boice4,0401.09%
RepublicanBrandon Merritt3,6150.97%
RepublicanReed Christensen3,0420.82%
RepublicanAmber Richardson1,9240.52%
RepublicanRaymond Baldwin4590.12%
RepublicanDavid Burch4060.11%
RepublicanJohn Presco1740.05%
RepublicanStefan Strek1710.05%
Total votes370,910 100.0%

Independents and other parties

Candidates

Candidates for general election

Withdrew

Failed to qualify for general election

In order to be listed as candidates on the general election ballot, non-affiliated candidates for governor needed to collect 23,744 signatures from Oregon voters (1% of votes cast for president in the 2020 election).[126]

  • Tim Harrold, security expert (non-affiliated)[127]
  • Dustin Watkins, dishwasher (non-affiliated)[128]

Not nominated

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[133]TossupSeptember 16, 2022
Inside Elections[134]TossupOctober 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[135]Lean DNovember 7, 2022
Politico[136]TossupOctober 3, 2022
RCP[137]TossupNovember 1, 2022
Fox News[138]TossupSeptember 20, 2022
538[139]Lean DNovember 8, 2022
Elections Daily[140]Lean DNovember 7, 2022

Debates

No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublicanIndependent
Key:  P  Participant 
Tina KotekChristine DrazanBetsy Johnson
1[141]July 29, 2022Oregon Newspaper Publishers AssociationMark GarberVideoPPP
2[142]Sept. 27, 2022Oregon State University–Cascades
KTVZ
City Club of Central Oregon		Cathy MarshallVideo (Part 1)
Video (Part 2)		PPP
3[143]Oct. 4, 2022KATUSteve DunnVideoPPP
4[144]Oct. 6, 2022KOBI
Southern Oregon University		Craig SmullinVideoPPP
5[145]Oct 19, 2022The Oregonian
KGW		Laurel Porter
Hillary Borrud		VideoPPP

Endorsements

Tina Kotek (D)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Native American tribes
Labor unions
Political parties
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals
Musicians
Christine Drazan (R)
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals
Betsy Johnson (I)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Labor unions
  • Oregon Machinists Council[195]
Newspapers
Organizations
  • Crime Victims United of Oregon[184]
  • Eugene Police Employees’ Association[184]
  • Fraternal Order of Police Oregon Lodge[184]
  • Oregon Chiefs of Police Association (co-endorsed with Drazan)[184]
  • Oregon Coalition of Police & Sheriffs (co-endorsed with Drazan)[184]
  • Oregon State Sheriffs' Association (co-endorsed with Drazan)[184]
  • Tigard Chamber of Commerce[199]
Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Tina
Kotek (D)		Christine
Drazan (R)		Betsy
Johnson (I)		Other
[e]		Margin
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 17 – November 6, 2022November 7, 202242.3%41.0%11.5%5.2%Kotek +1.3
FiveThirtyEightJune 29 – November 6, 2022November 7, 202244.9%41.9%8.4%4.8%Kotek +3
270toWinOctober 26 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202243.6%42.2%8.6%5.6%Kotek +1.4
Average43.6%42.0%9.5%4.9%Kotek +1.6
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Tina
Kotek (D)		Christine
Drazan (R)		Betsy
Johnson (I)		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D)November 1–6, 20221,393 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%7%1%[f]–
Emerson CollegeOctober 31 – November 1, 2022975 (LV)± 3.1%44%40%8%1%[g]6%
46%41%9%4%[h]–
Nelson ResearchOctober 31 – November 1, 2022577 (LV)± 4.1%43%45%6%1%[i]5%
Blueprint Polling (D)October 26 – November 1, 2022585 (LV)± 4.0%45%41%10%<1%[j]4%
FM3 Research (D)[C]October 24–26, 2022741 (LV)± 4.0%40%38%13%–8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 18–22, 20221,161 (LV)± 2.9%40%42%13%1%4%
Hoffman Research Group (R)October 17–18, 2022684 (LV)± 3.8%35%37%17%–12%
Data for Progress (D)October 16–18, 20221,021 (LV)± 3.0%42%43%12%–2%
CiviqsOctober 15–18, 2022804 (LV)± 4.3%47%39%7%2%[k]5%
GBAO (D)[C]October 10–13, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%40%38%14%–8%[e]
Clout Research (R)October 8–9, 2022842 (LV)± 3.4%38%44%11%1%5%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 29 – October 1, 2022796 (LV)± 3.4%34%36%19%2%[k]9%
Clout Research (R)September 23–26, 2022422 (LV)± 4.8%35%39%16%2%8%
DHM ResearchSeptember 23–24, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%31%32%18%4%[l]15%
33%35%21%–12%
Nelson Research[D]September 19–20, 2022620 (LV)± 3.9%32%33%19%–16%
Clout Research (R)August 10–14, 2022397 (LV)± 4.9%32%33%21%–15%
Cygnal (R)[E]June 28–30, 2022600 (LV)± 3.9%31%32%24%–13%
GS Strategy Group (I)[F]June 23–29, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%33%23%30%–15%
Nelson Research (R)May 25–27, 2022516 (LV)± 4.3%28%30%19%–24%
GS Strategy Group (I)[F]May 2022– (LV)–34%24%22%–20%
GS Strategy Group (I)[F]March 2022– (LV)–23%18%19%–41%
Hypothetical polling
Tina Kotek vs. Christine Drazan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Tina
Kotek (D)		Christine
Drazan (R)		Undecided
Clout Research (R)September 23–26, 2022422 (LV)± 4.8%47%53%–
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican vs. Betsy Johnson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Betsy
Johnson (I)		Undecided
DHM Research Archived May 28, 2022, at the Wayback MachineJanuary 18–22, 2022400 (A)± 4.9%31%22%11%36%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Clout Research (R)September 23–26, 2022422 (LV)± 4.8%50%50%–
DHM ResearchFebruary 17–23, 2022600 (RV)± 4.0%29%47%23%
DHM Research Archived May 28, 2022, at the Wayback MachineJanuary 18–22, 2022400 (A)± 4.9%40%31%29%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican vs. generic independent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Generic
Independent		Undecided
DHM ResearchFebruary 17–23, 2022600 (RV)± 4.0%16%26%21%37%

Results

2022 Oregon gubernatorial election[205][206]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticTina Kotek 917,074 46.96% −3.09%
RepublicanChristine Drazan850,34743.54%−0.11%
IndependentBetsy Johnson168,4318.63%N/A
ConstitutionDonice Noelle Smith8,0510.41%−0.72%
LibertarianR. Leon Noble6,8670.35%−1.20%
Write-in2,1130.11%-0.05%
Total votes1,952,883 100.00%
Turnout1,997,68966.91%
Registered electors2,985,820
Democratic hold

By county

By county
CountyTina Kotek
Democratic		Christine Drazan
Republican		Betsy Johnson
Independent		Donice Smith
Constitution		Leon Noble
Libertarian		Write-inMarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Baker1,48316.956,32872.318319.50690.79310.3590.10-4,845-55.378,751
Benton27,12859.8614,65832.343,1837.021490.331590.35420.0912,47027.5245,319
Clackamas92,27442.94102,11147.5219,1958.936060.285460.251570.07-9,837-4.58214,889
Clatsop8,05139.857,37536.514,62422.89850.42500.25160.086763.3520,201
Columbia8,03629.3513,42049.015,70220.821240.45830.30190.07-5,384-19.6627,384
Coos9,43730.0318,61159.222,9249.302300.731640.52630.20-9,174-29.1931,429
Crook2,20915.7110,36273.671,3619.68680.48500.36150.11-8,153-57.9714,065
Curry4,14332.687,27257.351,1168.80690.54710.5680.06-3,129-24.6812,679
Deschutes46,87942.7450,51346.0611,50210.493780.343310.30750.07-3,634-3.31109,678
Douglas12,01322.0237,24568.274,4928.234270.782830.52930.17-25,232-46.2554,553
Gilliam14714.7163663.6620420.4270.7040.4010.10-432-43.24999
Grant57613.813,14575.423839.18370.89210.5080.19-2,569-61.614,170
Harney48512.652,97377.543228.40340.89150.3950.13-2,488-64.893,834
Hood River6,04055.903,63333.621,0359.58550.51290.27130.122,40722.2810,805
Jackson39,61137.9556,36253.997,3207.015560.534600.44760.07-16,751-16.05104,385
Jefferson2,37623.816,25162.651,21212.15740.74450.45190.19-3,875-38.849,977
Josephine11,61027.0227,57864.193,2457.552900.681780.41610.14-15,968-37.1742,962
Klamath5,96819.7521,96272.681,8636.172410.801560.52270.09-15,994-52.9330,217
Lake43010.733,28281.892375.91140.35170.42280.70-2,852-71.164,008
Lane95,84752.1872,08739.2513,9117.577950.437950.432340.1323,76012.94183,669
Lincoln12,94749.2810,36639.462,64910.081480.561260.48340.132,5819.8226,270
Linn16,95927.5838,50562.615,2648.563940.642950.48780.13-21,546-35.0461,495
Malheur1,65618.036,92175.334715.13700.76640.7050.05-5,265-57.319,187
Marion51,23838.0070,74152.4611,5338.556300.475340.401740.13-19,503-14.46134,850
Morrow60714.843,01673.763899.51411.00300.7360.15-2,409-58.914,089
Multnomah265,80572.6272,15819.7126,0797.127530.218340.234140.11193,64752.90366,043
Polk15,57037.5121,89852.753,6068.692100.511830.44430.10-6,328-15.2441,510
Sherman12211.8079576.8910810.4440.3940.3910.10-673-65.091,034
Tillamook5,26636.046,63145.382,60017.79480.33500.34160.11-1,365-9.3414,611
Umatilla5,40321.5017,67270.321,6666.632150.861460.58300.12-12,269-48.8225,132
Union2,58020.578,69569.321,1278.98800.64510.41110.09-6,115-48.7512,544
Wallowa1,11624.283,13868.262916.33230.50230.5060.13-2,022-43.994,597
Wasco4,07735.745,97852.411,24010.87520.46510.4590.08-1,901-16.6711,407
Washington140,94655.0891,06835.5922,0248.618220.327530.292690.1149,87819.49255,882
Wheeler14016.8757669.409611.57121.4560.7200.00-436-52.53830
Yamhill17,89936.2126,38553.384,6269.362410.492290.46480.10-8,486-17.1749,428
Totals917,07446.96850,34743.54168,4318.638,0510.416,8670.352,1130.1166,7273.421,952,883

By congressional district

Kotek won 3 of 6 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Drazan, including one that elected a Democrat.[207]

DistrictKotekDrazanJohnsonRepresentative
1st57%30%10%Suzanne Bonamici
2nd27%63%8%Cliff Bentz
3rd64%27%7%Earl Blumenauer
4th46%44%8%Peter DeFazio (117th Congress)
Val Hoyle (118th Congress)
5th42%47%9%Kurt Schrader (117th Congress)
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (118th Congress)
6th44%46%9%Andrea Salinas

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Boice, Hess, and Merritt with 1%; Christensen and McCloud with <1%
  3. ^ Merritt with 2%; Richardson and Romero with 1%; Hess with <1%
  4. ^ Other with 12%, Heard with 3%
  5. ^ a b Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ Noble with 1%; Smith and Romero with 0%
  7. ^ Smith (C) with 1%; Noble (L); "Someone else" with <1%
  8. ^ Smith (C) with 1%; Noble (L) with <1%; "Someone else" with 3%
  9. ^ Noble with 1%; Smith with <1%
  10. ^ Smith (C) with <1%
  11. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ Noble (L) with 3%; Smith (C) with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Read's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by John von Schlegell while considering a Republican primary run for governor
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Kotek's campaign
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Associated General Contractors Oregon-Columbia Chapter, which donated $100,000 to both Drazan and Johnson[204]
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the Oregon State Senate Republican Caucus, which supported Drazan
  6. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Johnson's campaign (GS Strategy Group typically works with Republican clients, not to be confused with Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group)

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  207. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
Official campaign websites
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Oregon_gubernatorial_election

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