Oregon politicians love to talk about “the Oregon way.”

It’s meant to convey the feeling that in Oregon, politicians do things differently. They take the best ideas, whether they come from a Republican or a Democrat. They govern in a respectful, inclusive manner.

But these days, “the Oregon way” looks a lot more like the Washington, D.C., way.

Last week, the 2021 legislative session reached its halfway point. The hope that the unprecedented crises facing the state — homes ravaged by wildfires, people dying of COVID-19, a racial reckoning movement underway — would inspire political unity has all but died.

Instead, the session kicked off with talk of a criminal investigation into Rep. Mike Nearman, a Polk County Republican who let violent demonstrators gain access to the Oregon State Capitol. It pivoted quickly to whether Rep. Diego Hernandez, D-Portland, would become the first lawmaker to be expelled from the body after facing harassment allegations.

The 2022 midterm elections will decide not only who controls the U.S. Senate and House but, crucially, which party governs 36 of the nation’s 50 states. These contests will play a key role in determining the policies that states adopt while also serving as a launchpad for potential national political stars who might find their way into federal office, like the Senate — or even the presidency.

In past midterms, a sizable number of governorships have switched party hands, too, often with major political ramifications. However, at this early vantage point, it’s not clear whether there will be much turnover in 2022. On the one hand, the party in the White House usually loses seats, and some Republican-leaning voters may be more motivated than Democrats to turn out to vote because they are frustrated with Democrats and President Biden. But on the other hand, 29 of the 36 governors up for election can run again. This could limit the number of seats Democrats lose, as incumbents tend to have a better chance of holding on to a party’s seat. Additionally, few Democrats govern Republican-leaning states.

History does suggest that Republicans are well-positioned to gain at least some ground, though. In 16 of the 19 midterm elections held after World War II, the president’s party lost governorships.